Market note · November 2026

Georgia’s reserves hit a record USD 8.25bn as Fitch turns positive

The National Bank of Georgia ended October with the largest external buffer in its history, and Fitch has moved the sovereign outlook to Positive. Here is what this changes for investors and borrowers.

The numbers

A record buffer

Gross international reserves rose by USD 82.6m in October to USD 8.25bn, according to the National Bank of Georgia. The build-up has been driven by the central bank’s net foreign-currency purchases on the interbank market, which totalled about USD 3.37bn in January–September 2026. Gold now accounts for USD 1.365bn, or 16.6% of reserves, after purchases of USD 500m in June and October.

Fitch moves to Positive

On 30 October Fitch Ratings affirmed Georgia at BB and revised the outlook to Positive from Stable. According to the Ministry of Finance, the agency pointed to the rapid accumulation of reserves, a low current account deficit, high growth and a declining debt-to-GDP ratio. Fitch expects GDP growth of 7.5% in 2026, slowing gradually towards a potential of about 5%. Geostat estimates growth of 7.4% for the first nine months of the year.

What it means for investors

• Currency and transfer risk. A larger reserve cushion reduces the risk of sharp lari moves and of restrictions on transfers.
• Funding costs. A Positive outlook opens the possibility of an upgrade to BB+, which would typically lower funding costs for the sovereign, banks and corporate borrowers.
• Deal structures. Better visibility on the external position supports private debt, trade finance and acquisition structures with hard-currency cash flows.

The risks

BB remains below investment grade, and an outlook change is not an upgrade. In May Fitch expected the current account deficit to widen to about 5% of GDP in 2026. Growth is moderating, to 6.0% in September, and analysts see a possible rate hike in December.

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Information current as of November 2026; not investment, legal or tax advice.